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Mounting evidence shows overall insect abundances are in decline globally. Habitat loss, climate change, and pesticides have all been implicated, but their relative effects have never been evaluated in a comprehensive large-scale study. We harmonized 17 years of land use, climate, multiple classes of pesticides, and butterfly survey data across 81 counties in five states in the US Midwest. We find community-wide declines in total butterfly abundance and species richness to be most strongly associated with insecticides in general, and for butterfly species richness the use of neonicotinoid-treated seeds in particular. This included the abundance of the migratory monarch (Danaus plexippus), whose decline is the focus of intensive debate and public concern. Insect declines cannot be understood without comprehensive data on all putative drivers, and the 2015 cessation of neonicotinoid data releases in the US will impede future research. 

Conservation tillage in American soybean production has become increasingly common, improving soil health while reducing soil erosion and fuel consumption. This trend has been reinforced by the widespread adoption of glyphosate-based weed control systems. Many weed species have since evolved to resist glyphosate, reducing its effectiveness. We provide evidence that the spread of glyphosate-resistant weeds is responsible for significant reductions in the use of conservation tillage in soybean production. We estimate reduced-form and structural probit models of tillage choice, using a large panel of field-level soybean management decisions from across the United States spanning 1998-2016. We find that the first emergence of glyphosate-resistant weed species has little initial effect on tillage practices, though by the time that eight glyphosate-resistant weed species are identified, conservation tillage and no-till use fall by 3.9 percentage points and 7.6 percentage points, respectively. We further find that when ten glyphosate-resistant species are present, the predicted adoption rate of non-glyphosate herbicides rises 50 percentage points, and that the availability of non-glyphosate herbicides facilitates continued use of conservation tillage as glyphosate-resistant weeds proliferate. Using a simple benefits transfer model, we conservatively estimate that between 2008 and 2016 farmers' tillage responses to the spread of glyphosate-resistant weeds have caused water quality and climate damages via fuel emissions valued at nearly $245 million. This value does not account for climate damages due to carbon released during soil disruptions and is likely to grow as glyphosate resistance becomes more widespread and more farmers turn to tillage for supplemental weed control.